JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- While the month of August brought periods of prolonged, excessive heat to some regions and bouts of torrential, flooding rains to others, the nation's corn and soybean crops maintained their yield trajectories overall, according to updated data from the 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour.

Based on DTN's proprietary yield models as of Sept. 1, the national average corn yield is projected at 178.4 bushels per acre (bpa), down 0.1 bpa from Aug. 1 model estimates. In soybeans, DTN models estimate the national average yield at 52.3 bpa, up 0.2 bpa from a month earlier.

"The patterns are generally toward minor increases in yield prospects through the heart of the Corn Belt, with more substantial decreases in yield expectations to the north and south of that, leaving the big picture nearly unchanged," said John Mewes, DTN lead data scientist.

For corn, yield estimates increased in six of the 11 states highlighted during the DTN Digital Yield Tour, including Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. Missouri had the largest yield increase from Aug. 1 to Sept. 1, with models increasing statewide yields from 167.5 bpa to 176.2 bpa. The largest decrease came in North Dakota, where the corn yield estimate tumbled nearly 18 bpa, from 151.4 bpa to 133.5 bpa.

For soybeans, yield estimates increased in five of the 11 states. Nebraska saw the largest increase in its state yield estimate, rising from 55.9 bpa to 58.6 bpa, according to DTN models. The largest decrease once again was found in North Dakota, where the soybean yield estimate fell from 34.0 bpa to 31.1 bpa.

ASSORTED AUGUST WEATHER

According to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick, a hot and dry month of July had increased concerns about whether rainfall from June would suffice. But as August rolled in, the weather pattern opened up, specifically from Nebraska through Ohio.

"It resulted in a lot of rain and severe weather in that corridor, especially from southeastern Iowa into western Ohio," Baranick said. "Over a one-week period in mid-August, rainfall amounts broke above 10 inches in many areas, causing flooding that may have been damaging. For areas that didn't see the extreme rainfall, this corridor had some of the best August weather. Nebraska probably made out the best with the mix of frequent rainfall and more limited heat."

Baranick noted that to the north, from the Dakotas into Wisconsin, temperatures were warm, but not extreme most days. The weather pattern looked busy, but it didn't result in a lot of heavy rainfall amounts. Most of these areas saw below-normal rainfall in August and that has continued to compound the problems noted in July.

Across the southern end of the Corn Belt, especially Kansas and Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley and down south to the Gulf, it was not only dry but extremely hot, he said.

"Some areas of Oklahoma and Texas were over 100 degrees almost every day in August while the heat was well into the 90s elsewhere in the region," Baranick said. "Overnight lows would have been a problem as well as it was hard to get down deep into the 70s. That extra heat and drought stress is likely to have had a big impact on how crops end up this year."

MARKET-MOVING METRICS?

The updated estimates from the DTN yield models based on Sept. 1 conditions fit the narrative that has developed through August and early September, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. He noted that after a hot and dry second half of July, conditions were generally improved through early August through the heart of the Corn Belt, while outside areas such as the Dakotas remained concerning.

"Recent crop ratings illustrate this with Iowa's crop still a strong 77% good to excellent as of early September while North Dakota is only 19%," he said. "Overall, it seems to point to average or below average productivity for the U.S. as a whole.

"Heading into the September WASDE on Friday (Sept. 11), analysts on average are expecting to see a drop in the corn yield below 180 bpa to the 178 bpa area, in line with the DTN model results," Montgomery continued. "It will depend on how demand shapes up, too, but I'd imagine a USDA yield forecast over 180 bpa would be deemed as bearish in Friday's report, while the market has already been pricing in a 170s yield and subsequent decline in U.S. corn reserves through the 2026-27 year."

Turning attention to soybeans, Montgomery acknowledged that national crop ratings also declined through the month of August, with periods of hit-or-miss rainfall which may have adversely affected pod fill for certain regions.

"The Northern Plains as well as the Southern Delta regions stand out as areas with perhaps suboptimal conditions through August," he said. "That being said, although the national good-to-excellent rating of 58% is the lowest for early September in three years, it is more or less average over the Crop Progress time series dating back to the late 1980s. This leads me to believe an average yield, such as the 52.3 bpa forecasted by the DTN model, is a fair guess at this point.

"As for the market, it is really all about soybean demand right now," Montgomery explained. "Barring a surprising increase to yield into record territory (above 53 bpa), demand is outpacing supply projections, led by the return of China as a buyer. This has driven prices to multiyear highs with the market pricing in an ending stocks figure below 300 million bushels and stocks relative to use of less than 7% -- historically, very bullish territory."

2026 DIGITAL YIELD TOUR ESTIMATES AT A GLANCE

CORN (bushels per acre)

	DTN DYT-SEPTEMBER		DTN DYT-AUGUST
National	178.4		178.5
Illinois	211.6		210.3
Indiana	204.7		202.2
Iowa	217.1		214.0
Kansas	111.4		112.5
Minnesota	198.8		200.6
Missouri	176.2		167.5
Nebraska	178.7		176.3
North Dakota	133.5		151.4
Ohio	196.4		191.9
South Dakota	151.8		159.9
Wisconsin	181.5		187.2

SOYBEANS (bushels per acre)

	DTN DYT-SEPTEMBER		DTN DYT-AUGUST
National	52.3		52.1
Illinois	65.0		64.7
Indiana	61.6		61.7
Iowa	64.2		61.8
Kansas	37.0		38.9
Minnesota	51.6		52.6
Missouri	51.4		49.4
Nebraska	58.6		55.9
North Dakota	31.1		34.0
Ohio	56.7		55.4
South Dakota	44.8		45.1
Wisconsin	51.6		52.2

ABOUT THE MODELS

DTN's yield models forecast at the field level using a wide array of publicly available data, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps, growing degree days, USDA crop condition reports and more. They also include DTN's proprietary weather and soil data, making them unique.

DTN's model methodology is also unique in that the models are trained on USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) yield data, rather than monthly estimates prepared by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). RMA's data is compiled using crop insurance data, while NASS surveys farmers to build its county yield estimates. RMA's county yields tend to be higher than those reported by NASS, but the differences vary by county and region. By using RMA data, DTN can generate countywide forecasts for places with limited crop production.

Complete coverage of the 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Read Montgomery's latest USDA reports preview here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @JasonJenkinsDTN

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.